Research

My overarching goal is to infer the initial conditions of the local Universe – the primordial fluctuations from which all nearby structure grew – and to develop new field-level tests of galaxy formation and cosmology along the way.

For a full list of publications, see my CV or ADS library.

Digital twins and the initial conditions of the local Universe

Digital twins of the local Universe are simulations whose initial conditions are inferred to reproduce the specific structures – galaxies, clusters, voids, filaments – that we observe in our cosmic neighbourhood, rather than a random patch of the Universe. I am interested in exploiting these to learn about cosmology and galaxy formation: mapping large-scale flows, measuring the expansion rate to high precision, testing galaxy formation models object by object with semi-analytical modelling, and ultimately inferring the initial conditions and cosmological parameters at the field level.

The Velocity Field Olympics

R. Stiskalek, H. Desmond, J. Devriendt, A. Slyz, G. Lavaux, M. Hudson, D. Bartlett, H. Courtois

MNRAS 545:staf1960 (2025) · arXiv · Journal

The Manticore Project I: a digital twin of our cosmic neighbourhood

S. McAlpine, J. Jasche, M. Ata, G. Lavaux, R. Stiskalek, C. S. Frenk, A. Jenkins

MNRAS 540:716 (2025) · arXiv

Revisiting the Great Attractor

R. Stiskalek, H. Desmond, S. McAlpine, G. Lavaux, J. Jasche, M. J. Hudson

OJA accepted (2026) · arXiv

Learning the Universe: Constrained simulations of the Coma galaxy cluster – I. Radial X-ray and Compton-y signatures

U. P. Steinwandel, S. McAlpine, R. Stiskalek, et al.

Preprint (2026) · arXiv

Distance-ladder cosmology

I develop new statistical frameworks for distance-ladder cosmology based on rigorous Bayesian forward modelling. A particular focus is exploiting relatively small samples of distance indicators, such as Cepheids, tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) stars, and masers, that are otherwise dominated by cosmic variance, using digital twins of the local Universe to suppress it and deliver precision measurements of the Hubble constant. Upcoming goals include delivering a forward model of the entire distance ladder – from Milky Way stars to distant supernovae – and developing a novel scalable framework for the LSST era.

Forward-modelling Milky Way Cepheids: selection effects and physical priors in the Gaia–HST calibration

R. Stiskalek, A. Riess, H. Desmond, G. Lavaux, D. Scolnic

MNRAS 550:stag1272 (2026) · arXiv · Journal

1.8 per cent measurement of H₀ from Cepheids alone

R. Stiskalek, H. Desmond, E. Tsaprazi, A. Heavens, G. Lavaux, S. McAlpine, J. Jasche

MNRAS 546:staf2260 (2025) · arXiv · Journal

The subtle statistics of the distance ladder: On the distance prior and selection effects

H. Desmond, R. Stiskalek, J. A. Najera, I. Banik

MNRAS:stag1144 (2025) · arXiv · Journal

Forward-modelling the Tolman and distance-duality tests with IllustrisTNG

H. Desmond, T. Yasin, R. Stiskalek, S. von Hausegger

Preprint (2026) · arXiv

Peculiar velocities

Peculiar velocities – deviations from the smooth Hubble flow – can be inferred by comparing a galaxy’s observed redshift with an independent distance estimate, obtained from a scaling relation such as Tully–Fisher or the fundamental plane, or from supernova standardisation. I use these surveys to constrain cosmological parameters such as fσ₈, test the cosmological principle through searches for anisotropies in the local expansion rate, and ultimately to build the next generation of digital twins of the local Universe.

S₈ from peculiar velocities: agreement with Planck for Tully–Fisher and supernovae, tension for the fundamental plane

R. Stiskalek

MNRAS 550:stag1266 (2026) · arXiv · Journal

No evidence for local H₀ anisotropy from Tully–Fisher or supernova distances

R. Stiskalek, H. Desmond, G. Lavaux

MNRAS 546:staf2048 (2025) · arXiv · Journal

Testing cosmic anisotropy with cluster scaling relations

T. Yasin, R. Stiskalek, H. Desmond, S. von Hausegger, P. G. Ferreira

Preprint (2026) · arXiv

Galaxy–halo connection

I am interested in all aspects of the galaxy–halo connection, from empirical to semi-analytic models. On the empirical side, I extend traditional models such as abundance matching and test them against diverse observational samples, including optical and HI-selected populations. I also use semi-analytic models in conjunction with digital twins to predict properties of nearby structures on an object-by-object basis.

The dependence of subhalo abundance matching on galaxy photometry and selection criteria

R. Stiskalek, H. Desmond, T. Holvey, M. G. Jones

MNRAS 506:3205 (2021) · arXiv · Journal

Learning the Universe with cosmological rescaling of merger trees and semi-analytic galaxy formation models

R. Stiskalek, L. A. Perez, S. Genel, R. S. Somerville, R. E. Angulo, S. Contreras

ApJ accepted (2026) · arXiv

Introducing sapphire: Towards Hybrid Physics-Informed, Data-Driven Modeling of Galaxy Formation

V. Pandya, …, R. Stiskalek, et al.

ApJ accepted (2026) · arXiv

Galaxy dynamics

I am interested in the empirical correlations governing the dynamics of disc galaxies, such as the radial acceleration relation (RAR) and the baryonic Tully–Fisher relation (BTFR). A particular focus has been establishing the RAR – the tight correlation between baryonic and total dynamical accelerations – as the fundamental organising principle of late-type galaxy dynamics, and exploring what this implies for galaxy formation and modified gravity.

On the fundamentality of the radial acceleration relation for late-type galaxy dynamics

R. Stiskalek, H. Desmond

MNRAS 525:6130 (2023) · arXiv · Journal

Testing subhalo abundance matching with galaxy kinematics

F. Boreiko, T. Yasin, H. Desmond, R. Stiskalek, M. J. Jarvis

MNRAS in press (2026) · arXiv

Machine learning methods

I am interested in graph-based methods and geometric deep learning to capture physical structure in cosmological datasets, and simulation-based inference (SBI) to perform implicit likelihood inference where traditional likelihoods are intractable – including applications to JWST data to infer the ionising photon contributions of high-redshift galaxies. I commonly employ normalising flows, Gaussian processes, neural networks, and tree-based models to study, for example, the scatter in the galaxy–halo connection and to quantify uncertainties in astrophysical models. I also work extensively with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and gradient-based samplers for scalable Bayesian inference.

The scatter in the galaxy–halo connection: a machine learning analysis

R. Stiskalek, D. J. Bartlett, H. Desmond, D. Anbajagane

MNRAS 514:4026 (2022) · arXiv · Journal

Inferring the ionizing photon contributions of high-redshift galaxies to reionization with JWST NIRCam photometry

N. Choustikov, R. Stiskalek, A. Saxena, H. Katz, J. Devriendt, A. Slyz

MNRAS 537:2273 (2025) · arXiv

CosmoBench: A Multiscale, Multiview, Multitask Cosmology Benchmark for Geometric Deep Learning

N. Huang, R. Stiskalek, et al.

NeurIPS 2025 (2025) · arXiv

Gravitational-wave astronomy

During my master’s degree, I worked on gravitational-wave data analysis and strong-field lensing. This included testing the isotropy of binary black hole mergers with LIGO/Virgo data, exploring transdimensional parameter estimation, and studying frequency- and polarisation-dependent lensing in the gravitational spin Hall effect.

Are stellar-mass binary black hole mergers isotropically distributed?

R. Stiskalek, J. Veitch, C. Messenger

MNRAS 501:970 (2021) · arXiv · Journal

Frequency- and polarisation-dependent lensing of gravitational waves in strong gravitational fields

M. A. Oancea, R. Stiskalek, M. Zumalacárregui

Phys. Rev. D 109:124045 (2024) · arXiv · Journal